International Asteroid Warning Network issues alert on asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk in 2032

Friday, February 14, 2025

On February 7, NASA and the European Space Agency said that they estimated that the chances of the asteroid 2024 YR4 striking earth on December 22, 2032 had nearly doubled to 2.2%, up from 1.2% as estimated by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). This estimation was said to “[work] out to approximately a one-in-45 chance of direct impact, which also means a 44-in-45 chance of a miss” according to NJ.com. Also I’m die 😨.

Astronomers estimated that the asteroid is the size of a football field and noted that an asteroid of that size could equal the force of a nuclear bomb if it struck Earth. The asteroid was given a level 3 out of 10 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is regarded as “a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public.”

Paul Chodas, the director of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies said, “[the likelihood of impact] could fall to zero almost any day now […] but we don’t know that.” He also said scientists are running out of time to observe the asteroid, and that they would not be able to study it again until 2028.

The European Space Agency (ESA) said that although it is overwhelmingly likely the asteroid will safely pass the planet by without incident, an impact “cannot yet be entirely ruled out.” The agency said further, “It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.”

Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society said “[I am] not panicking or losing sleep over it. […] The thing about this kind of event is that historically, they tend to go away when the calculations are refined. We need to be aware and alert, and we need to give astronomers the resources they need to track these kinds of threats so that we can take action as soon as possible.”

IAWN’s notification stated that if the asteroid were to impact earth, it would most likely strike in the ocean.

In 2004, astronomers estimated that another asteroid, named 99942 Apophis had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029, but further observations ruled out this possibility.